星期二, 10月 18, 2016

台灣經濟學家學術排名 (2017年5月)

Top 25% Institutions and Economists in Taiwan, as of May 2017

資料來源 http://ideas.repec.org/top/top.taiwan.html
排名:
(1) 根據在 IDEAS 登錄的經濟學家為比較基礎
(2) 目前台灣經濟學家登錄人數:182

 

  1. Michael McAleer (清大計財系)
  2. 李建強 Chien-Chiang Lee (中山財管系)
  3. 劉錦添 Jin-Tan Liu (台大經濟系)
  4. 周雨田 Ray Yeutien Chou (中研院經濟所)
  5. 管中閔 Chung-Ming Kuan (台大財金系)
  6. 張嘉玲 Chia-Lin Chang (中興應經系)
  7. 賴景昌 Ching-chong Lai (中研院經濟所)
  8. 張倉耀 Tsangyao Chang (逢甲商學院)
  9. 陳旭昇 Shiu-Sheng Chen (台大經濟系)
  10. 陳明郎 Been-Lon Chen (中研院經濟所)
  11. 黃永強 Wing-Keung Wong (亞洲大學財務金融學系)
  12. 李怡庭 Yiting Li (台大經濟系)
  13. 王泓仁 Hung-Jen Wang (台大經濟系) 
  14. 簡錦漢 Kamhon Kan (中研院經濟所)
  15. 張存炳 Chun Ping Chang (實踐大學行銷管理學系)
  16. 胡均立 Jin-Li Hu (交大經管所)
  17. 蕭代基 Daigee Shaw (中研院經濟所)
  18. 張俊仁 Juin-jen Chang (中研院經濟所)
  19. 陳恭平 Kong-Pin Chen (中研院社科中心/台大經濟系)
  20. 林明仁 Ming-Jen Lin (台大經濟系)
  21. 陳南光 Nan-Kuang Chen (台大經濟系)
  22. 陳樹衡 Shu-Heng Chen (政大經濟系)
  23. 王道一 Joseph Tao-yi Wang (台大經濟系)
  24. 陳虹如 Hung-Ju Chen (台大經濟系) 
  25. 許育進 Yu-Chin Hsu (中研院經濟所)
  26. 駱明慶 Ming-Ching Luoh (台大經濟系)
  27. 陳婉淑 Cathy W. S. Chen (逢甲商學院)  
  28. 彭信坤 Shin-Kun Peng (中研院經濟所)
  29. 林淑琴 Shu-Chin Lin (淡江經濟系)
  30. 余士迪 Shih-Ti Yu (清大計量財務系)
  31. 蔡文禎 Wen-Jen Tsay (中研院經濟所)
  32. 王冠閔 Kuan Min Wang (僑光財金系)
  33. 陳珮芬 Pei-Fen Chen (暨南國企系)
  34. 鄒孟文 Meng-Wen Tsou (中央產經所)
  35. 林世昌 Eric S. Lin  (清大經濟系)
  36. 冼芻蕘 Chor-yiu (CY) Sin (清大經濟系)
  37. 陳盛通 Sheng Tung Chen (逢甲財稅)
  38. 張宏浩 Hung-Hao Chang (台大農經系)
  39. 黃景沂 Ching-I Huang (台大經濟系)
  40. 鄭義暉 I-Hui Cheng (高大應經系)
  41. 莊奕琦 Yih-chyi Chuang (政大經濟系)
  42. 樊家忠 Elliott Fan (台大經濟系)
  43. 馮炳萱 Loretta Fung (清大經濟系)
  44. 黃朝熙 Chao-Hsi Huang (清大經濟系)
  45. 陳建勳 Chien-Hsun Chen (中華經濟研究院)   


星期五, 9月 16, 2016

[經言經語] "The Trouble With Macroeconomics" by Paul Romer

[經言經語] https://www.facebook.com/macroecontalk/

Paul Romer 為紐約大學商學院教授, 2016 年 7 月開始擔任世界銀行首席經濟學家, 為開創內生成長理論的重要人物 (有興趣的讀者可進一步閱讀 《知識與國富論--一個探索經濟成長的故事》http://www.readingtimes.com.tw/timeshtml/ad/BE0152/ ), 亦為近年來諾貝爾經濟學獎呼聲頗高的候選人之一。他近來對於總體經濟模型的發展多所評論, 在 2016 年 9 月 14 日發表的一篇名為 "The Trouble With Macroeconomics" 的論文中, 就對始於 Ed. Prescott 的實質景氣循環 (RBC) 模型, 現今集大成於動態隨機一般均衡 (DSGE) 模型的當代總體模型做出許多批評。他將現在的總體模型稱為"後現實"(Post-Real)模型, 原因在於, 當代總體理論太過仰賴於無可名狀的隨機衝擊作為景氣波動的解釋。

Paul Romer 的文字酸意十足, 實不下於廣大鄉民, 茲摘錄幾段:

"Macroeconomists got comfortable with the idea that fluctuations in macroeconomic aggregates are caused by imaginary shocks, instead of actions that people take, after Kydland and Prescott (1982) launched the real business cycle (RBC) model."

"Proponents of the RBC model cite its microeconomic foundation as one of its main advantages. This posed a problem because there is no microeconomic evidence for the negative phlogiston shocks that the model invokes nor any sensible theoretical interpretation of what a negative phlogiston shock would mean."

"Once macroeconomists concluded that it was reasonable to invoke an imaginary forcing variables, they added more. The resulting menagerie, together with my suggested names now includes:

• A general type of phlogiston that increases the quantity of consumption goods produced by given inputs

• An "investment-specific" type of phlogiston that increases the quantity of capital goods produced by given inputs

• A troll who makes random changes to the wages paid to all workers

• A gremlin who makes random changes to the price of output

• Aether, which increases the risk preference of investors

• Caloric, which makes people want less leisure"

"With the possible exception of phlogiston, the modelers assumed that there is no way to directly measure these forces. Phlogiston can in measured by growth accounting, at least in principle. In practice, the calculated residual is very sensitive to mismeasurement of the utilization rate of inputs, so even in this case, direct measurements are frequently ignored."
"To allow for the possibility that monetary policy could matter, empirical DSGE models put sticky-price lipstick on this RBC pig. The sticky-price extensions allow for the possibility that monetary policy can affect output, but the reported results from fitted or calibrated models never stray far from RBC dogma. If monetary policy matters at all, it matters very little."

稍微解釋一下。在實質景氣循環模型中, 所謂的技術性衝擊 (technology shocks) 被視為最重要的景氣波動來源。然而, 總體經濟學家無法對於技術性衝擊給予一個具說服力的解釋。尤其是難以解釋什麼是時常發生的負向的技術性衝擊 (總不能老是用天災跟戰爭來搪塞)。因此, Paul Romer 將這種總體經濟學家假設的外生衝擊比喻成燃素 (Phlogiston), 並稱之為 phlogiston shocks。

燃素理論(Phlogiston theory)是一個已被取代的化學理論, 起源於17世紀。 這個理論假設, 任何物質在燃燒時, 都會釋放出一種名叫燃素(Phlogiston) 的成分。因此, Paul Romer 是以 phlogiston shocks 的稱呼來諷刺總體經濟學家。